Place Your Bets

Posted by Daniel Joseph

I’ve never been a big gambler, largely a result of my risk-averse wife (I tend to live well above my means), but couldn’t resist having a punt on a clash between a Sydney and Melbourne team. As I have no preference for either side (#roosters #2017premiers), I’ll instead rely on statistics to make my selection.

So where am I likely to achieve the best results for my money? Cue property market analogy. Asset selection and a grand final punt share a number of similarities:

The Form Guide

Past Performance

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. The Storm have won ten of their last twelve games and, as the code’s leading defensive team, are deserving favourites over the grand final debutants. Generally speaking, Melbourne’s property market has had a run akin to the Storm, characterised by over-achievement and performance. What it does lack, however, is the structure of the Grand Final favourite.

Player Ratings

As we often discuss, the Melbourne property market is segmented both regionally and by product type. The south and east have significantly outperformed the north and west, increasing the discrepancy in average prices between regions. If Melbourne’s south and east were Billy Slater, the north and west could be likened to rising star fullback Cameron Munster.

The Coach

Bellamy’s success has been driven largely by his ability to develop players into stars rather than recruiting existing stars. It’s like investing ahead of the herd rather than at the peak of a market. Your investment coach is Blue Wealth; analysing every move each player makes in anticipation of the next line break. In the investment game it pays to get professional advice, and the soundest advice comes from those who know the game best.

On defence and experience, I’ll be placing my bet on Melbourne; with a secondary bet on the city’s north-west crossing the line early as first try scorer.

Scrap that, I love an underdog. Go the Sharks!

Posted by Daniel Joseph, on 27th Sep 2016