Any of you who know me, know how much I love Rugby League! I’ve been riding the emotions of being a Bulldogs supporter for almost five decades, and as disappointed as I am that we didn’t make it to the big dance, I’m so bloody happy that we were playing in the finals again after a long period in the wilderness. We proved this year that we’re the biggest club in Sydney and it’s not even close! Look out 2026.

Sport is the ultimate reality TV and I love it. This final’s series has been the best one in living memory – some incredible drama. On Sunday, I’ll be out at Accor watching favourites Melbourne take on the talent of Brisbane! Let’s hope the grand final is as epic as the finals have been.

We all know that life that imitates sport and there are some incredible parallels between the sporting teams and their property markets. 

The Brisbane Broncos have come from nowhere! In 2020, they finished last and took home their first and only wooden spoon. For those of us who own property in Brisbane, life was imitating sport – in the five years leading into 2020, the property market growth had barely tracked inflation. Like the football team, it had all the ingredients it needed to be successful, but it wasn’t its time. Roll the clock forward a few years and in 2023 the Broncos made the Grand Final and stole defeat from the jaws of victory in a heartbreaking loss to the red-hot Penrith Panthers and all-time classic comeback. At the same time, the property market was on the same upward trajectory. Since the wooden spoon, the property market has grown 78%. Sport imitating life! The Brisbane Lions won the AFL flag last Saturday, and on Sunday, the Broncos have the chance to win their first title since 2006 and put an exclamation mark on what has been a golden period for the city!

What about the Melbourne Storm? Since coach Craig Bellamy took over in 2003, the Storm have played finals in 22 of 23 seasons. Unprecedented! The only year they missed out was the year they were stripped of their points. They’ve made 11 grand finals in that time and won 5 of the 10 played so far, and on Sunday they have the chance to make it six. Incredible consistency. However, with the domination of Penrith over the past few years, the Storm have been starved of a grand final win for a few years now. Not unlike its footy team’s grand final record, Melbourne property has also been through a few lean years despite the market having an incredible long-term record of consistency. In the 40 years leading into COVID, no market grew more than Melbourne. Those in the know know, that buying property in Melbourne and holding long term is about as safe as it gets when it comes to real estate investing and building wealth in Australia. A bit like being a Storm supporter! Success is guaranteed. As I write this, all key indicators are showing a resurgent Melbourne property market and the Storm have the opportunity to do the same on Sunday.

So who wins? Well, let’s strip away the emotion driven by sport and dive into Gavin’s data-driven perspective before I give you my prediction for Sunday and the property markets.

Melbourne vs Brisbane: Same nation, different cycle.

Australia’s housing market is back in motion. Rate cuts in early 2025, real wage growth, and a chronic shortage of new dwellings have lifted confidence across the capitals. Beneath that national story are various submarkets behaving differently. One of the most apparent contrasts is between the Melbourne and Brisbane markets. One is trading below its long-run path with value building; the other has sprinted ahead and is catching its breath.

This piece compares the two through three lenses I use often internally blog: (1) position to the long-term regression line (trend), (2) supply levels via stock-on-market (SOM), and (3) income return via yields. I’ll also translate SOM into per-capita and per-household terms to keep the analysis interpretable. Finally, I’ll anchor it within three-year growth bands.

1) Why the regression line matters (and what it says right now).

Markets don’t travel in straight lines; they oscillate around a long-term exponential trend. That line reflects the slow, compounding forces of population, income, and credit. The single best “first pass” on cyclic risk and opportunity is where a city sits relative to that line.

• Above trend usually means the market has front-loaded gains; the next phase tends to be slower growth or a sideways consolidation while affordability and incomes catch up.
• Below trend usually means latent upside; as rates fall and confidence returns, the market has room to revert upward toward its long-run path.

What the charts show now

• Melbourne sits below its long-run trend after a softer 2023–24. That under-shoot is the makings of a catch-up phase.

• Brisbane sits well above trend after a stellar run since 2020; classic overshoot following a long, flat 2009–2020 period.

2) Effective supply: stock-on-market adjusted for scale

Headlines say that “listings are up/down,” but raw listing counts are misleading because cities are different sizes. The right way is to scale by the number of households (best), or if you prefer, by population. I’ll show you both.

Contemporaneous inputs (rounded).

• Melbourne: SOM ~38–42k (midpoint 40k); 2,027,000 households

• Brisbane: SOM ~18–22k (midpoint 20k); 1,015,000 households

Listings per 1,000 households (no extra assumptions).

• Melbourne: ~18.8–20.7 (midpoint 19.7)
• Brisbane: ~17.7–21.7 (midpoint 19.7)

On a household basis, they’re strikingly similar right now.

Listings per 100,000 people(assuming 2.6 persons/household, for transparency).

• Melbourne: ~721–797 (midpoint ~759)
• Brisbane: ~682–834 (midpoint ~758)

Again: essentially neck-and-neck now.

So if per-capita availability is similar, why is there different price behaviour? Because the trend position and affordability differ. Brisbane has already harvested a large chunk of gains (above trend, yields compressed), while Melbourne has latent upside (below trend, yields improving).

3) Income return: yields as a live signal

Yields are a real-time read on the balance between prices and rents. Where prices have outrun rents, yields compress; yields improve when prices lag or rents rise faster.

• Melbourne: units ~4.7%, houses ~3.1% — improving from the trough years.

• Brisbane: units ~4.1%, houses ~3.1% — compressing after the price sprint.

Interpreting that: Melbourne’s improving unit yields are consistent with value returning (and investors re-engaging). Brisbane’s yield compression says momentum has been spent for now; the market needs time (or stronger rent growth) to reload.

4) Affordability and the mean-reversion engine

Affordability is the “governor” on the engine. When serviceability ratios are stretched, growth slows even if supply stays tight. When serviceability improves, demand can express itself faster.

• Melbourne: mortgage serviceability ~38% of income (least deterioration since 2019 among capitals).
• Brisbane: ~45%, one of the highest ratios nationally.

Pair that with the trend positions and yields, and you get a cohesive picture:

• Melbourne is below trend, with improving yields and better affordability → set up for catch-up.
• Brisbane is above trend, with compressed yields and stretched affordability → set up for consolidation.

Property is a mean-reversion asset. Brisbane investors have already enjoyed a stellar run. Melbourne has been held back—so this cycle, it should make up ground, and into the next cycle, it’s positioned to outperform.

5) The three-year outlook

This combination of fundamental and technical analysis is reflected in my own modelling, which indicates the following:

• Melbourne: ~30–50% cumulative growth over the next three years
• Brisbane: ~10–20% cumulative growth over the next three years

Final thought

Both markets are on the same escalator – Australia’s structural undersupply and population growth mean the handrail points up. But for investors getting on board now, the relative position of entry matters. Brisbane moved earlier and faster; Melbourne was slower in reaching the escalator and has more growth left in this phase. That difference could amount to hundreds of thousands of dollars in the medium term in a mean-reverting asset like property.

Like the property market and the Grand Final on Sunday, it’s Melbourne’s time!