Gavin Chau

As we predicted the US is officially in recession…. except they say they’re not

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Sometimes it feels like we’re living in The Matrix, where the reality we are presented with is just an illusion. The US has officially recorded a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP – the standard definition of recession. However, the US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell says he doesn’t think the US is in recession… because they’re apparently redefining what a recession means.

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Gavin Chau

Have we already reached peak inflation? And what this means for the property market

Gavin Chau1 Comment on Have we already reached peak inflation? And what this means for the property market

With the price rises of lettuce, petrol, building materials, wages, rents, and just about anything you can think of lately, the topic of inflation keeps popping up. Of course, the response by the central banks is to raise rates. This has taken the heat out of risk on assets such as shares, cryptocurrencies, and property.

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Gavin Chau

A macro overview of the Perth housing market (part 2)

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It seems that we’ve had quite a few questions relating to the Perth housing market from the blog posted a fortnight ago, so let’s take a deeper look at the macro drivers. From the previous article, we’ve established that the Western Australian economy and housing market have had a heavy reliance on Chinese demand for commodities. I think the market can do quite well in the next housing cycle, but at some point, in our lifetime China will run into a demographic timebomb. Let’s have a look at how this could potentially play out for property prices in Perth.

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Gavin Chau

Did the pandemic and the war in Ukraine just trigger the end of globalisation?

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As I sat down to write today’s blog on this afternoon’s interest rate announcement, it occurred to me that how we got here was a case of the butterfly effect. The most popular use of the term came from the film Jurassic Park where Jeff Goldblum’s character was trying to explain chaos theory by saying “if a butterfly flaps its wings in Peking, you get rain instead of sunshine”. Quite frankly, I thought this was a terrible explanation, but the meaning is that everything that we’re witnessing now is an accumulation of the effects of everything that has come before it. Exactly like in any film that explores the physics of time travel.

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Gavin Chau

A macro overview of the Perth housing market

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Of all the capital cities Perth is probably the most interesting market from an analyst’s perspective. The population is only 2.2m yet Western Australia has an enormous land mass. In fact, the largest cattle station in Western Australia is bigger than 39 countries. While huge it’s mostly uninhabitable and Perth is one of the most isolated cities in the world – located 2,014km from the next closest city Adelaide.

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